With the holiday season starting soon, the week will be crucial for the financial market. The stock market will stay closed on Friday to observe Christmas Day. Similarly, the United States bond market will also close on Thursday, extending its lockdown till Friday.
The days before that have crucial data in focus and investors trying to assess the inflation data. In addition, the Federal Reserve is also set to release its monetary policy decision with the updated interest rate and economic outlooks.
The modifications show the central bank’s interest in the probable potential for three interest surges in the coming year. The chances of the hikes increase based on the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections.
The updated forecast and the Federal Reserve’s decision to improve its asset-buying tapering procedure emerged as the central bank noted the bettering labor market and increased inflation pressure in the economy.
Moreover, the experts expect the upcoming inflation prints to last another month. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s latest report, the PCE (personal consumption expenditure) can surge at a 0.6% monthly rate. The report serves as the focal point for economic changes, and the latest one shows an increase for eleven months straight.
On the other hand, the year-over-year basis can see the personal consumption expenditure rising 5.7%, which can be the quickest clip since 1982. Core PCE, which disregards more volatile energy and food prices, can also surge at a 0.4% monthly rate.
The transition will match October’s monthly increase, spelling troubles for the market. However, the rate worsens as the core PCE can increase on a 4.5%rate when it comes to a yearly basis. If the predictions come true, the rates will become the fastest clip since 1991.
The multi-decade high inflation prints would match with others that have been released recently. For example, the headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) shows the quickest surge in consumer rates in the past 39 years. Similarly, the PPI (Producer Price Index) increased by the most previous month at 9.6%.
Such figures are pointing to increased inflation rates, especially on a yearly basis. Given the severity of the situation and the long holiday season, traders are on the lookout for every market modification.